The final days of 2018 are here, which means it will soon be time for me to post my naval gaming predictions for 2019. Before we get to that, I must first re-visit my predictions from 2018, and see how I did!

Scott’s Sub Attack

Scoring

As is customary, I will be scoring my predictions using the following system:

• Prediction Completely Accurate: 2 Points
• Prediction Partially Accurate: 1 Point
• Prediction was WRONG!: 0 Points

Now, granted, since I’m also the one doing the grading there is room for all manner of shenanigans to creep in! However, I’d like to think that I’m relatively honest when I take a look at my predictions from previous years. To give you an idea, I typically get a score of around 50%-66%. If I were inclined to cheat, you’d think that my scores would be a lot higher, right?!

The Predictions

I had a total of 6 predictions last year, meaning a theoretical maximum score of 12 using my scoring system above. Lets get to it!

1. Warcradle will successfully re-launch Uncharted Seas and Dystopian Wars This Year

Result: WRONG! (0 points)

When Warcradle picked up the IP for Uncharted Seas, Dystopian Wars, and Firestorm Armada in 2017, the initial plan they put out was for a beta and relaunch of Dystopian Wars for 2018, with Uncharted Seas also being hinted at as a possible launch for this year as well. As it turned out, the Dystopian Wars beta test did start in 2018, though the game itself did not re-launch before the end of the year. On the plus side, this delay to the original timetable has enabled Warcradle to incorporate a lot of player feedback into the rules, to a greater degree than I had expected. As for Uncharted Seas, Warcradle showed a few pieces of concept art for the game, and had discussed in interviews that they were actively playtesting a new version of it, but there has been no further word on it since the first half of 2018.

2. The beta for Firestorm Armada will not start in 2018, and will get moved to 2019

Result: Completely Accurate (2 pts)

At the time I had made this prediction, Warcradle had not yet publicly stated their plans for Firestorm Armada beyond some simple generalities. They have since confirmed that they are indeed looking for a late 2019 start for the beta test!

3. Star Wars Armada Will Have A Successful Year, With 3 Waves of Releases

Result: WRONG! (0 points)

I was optimistic that 2018 would be the year that Fantasy Flight would finally get all its ducks in a row, and get a steady stream of releases together for Star Wars Armada. However, after only a single wave of Armada releases in 2017, Fantasy Flight followed up in 2018….with another single wave. From what I can tell, there is every sign that Star Wars Armada has been steadily losing steam over the last few years, due to a combination of a lack of new releases and a lack of stock for some previous releases that have since come to be mainstays of popular fleet builds (the basic Rebel and Imperial fighter packs are especially hard to come by, it seems).  A troubling trend I have noticed is that many stores, at least in my locality, have stopped stocking the game entirely, in favor of X-wing and Legion.

4. Dropfleet Commander Will Grow in Popularity in 2018

Result: Partially Accurate (1 pts)

I’ll go ahead and give myself a point for this one. Dropfleet did indeed see a couple of releases this year (Dreadnoughts and Destroyers), and near as I can tell the event support has remained more or less the same, if not slightly expanded. I am stopping short of giving myself full credit for this one, however, because I honestly thing that TTCombat has yet to really recapture much of the buzz that initially surrounded the game following the Kickstarter campaign.

5. The 2 New Expansions for Star Trek Ascendancy Will Release On Time

Result: WRONG! (o points)

Well, this was a bit of a leap, given Gale Force 9’s track record for on-time releases, and it did not pan out. The next two expansions, which have been announced to be the Vulcans and the Andorians, are supposedly finished, printed, and ready to ship, but are being held back until February in order to separate them out from the holiday rush. So, we might not have much longer to wait!

6. World of Warships Will See a Carrier Re-Vamp, And a RN Carrier Line

Result: Partially Accurate (1 pts)

I’m  giving myself  partial credit for this one, for while the long- promised carrier re-work is not quite here, it is on the horizon for a full launch in early 2019! After having been showcased in a few live stream sessions and then pushed out for a public beta test, the new carrier mechanics for the game are much more dynamic than the old ones were, and are, I think, an improvement for the game. And, it has been announced that British CVs are going to be the first new CV line once the changes go live!

Conclusion

Final Score:  4 pts

Ouch! This has been my worst year yet. Still, I am heartened by the fact that I lost most of my points due to delays, and not to cancellations. In other words, there are still some great things coming, just not as early as I initially thought! Perhaps I will do better with my 2019 Predictions…but that’s a topic for next time.